About
As part of the task dedicated to building a common European toolbox of open tools for geological modelling within the GSEU project, we are organising a workshop on 'Exploring, Quantifying and Communicating Uncertainties in Geological Models' and related challenges across the GSEU thematic fields.
The aim is to share current practices, identify common challenges and explore practical ways to handle and communicate uncertainties effectively, both within the scientific community and with stakeholders. As geological models encompass geological maps, we would be happy to share and extend broad views on communicating uncertainties in geology.
Programme
Session 1: Concepts & Sources
Monday, 2 March 2026 - 09:00 - 12:00 CET
- 09:00-09:05: Introduction
Philippe Calcagno (BRGM) - 09:05-09:20: The Geological Service for Europe project
Bob Hoogendoorn (TNO / EuroGeoSurveys) - 09:20-09:35: Interactive Mentimeter
- 09:35-09:55: Uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis for informed decisions with geological models: open tools and open questions
Florian Wellmann, Miguel de la Varga, Denise Degen, Zhouji Liang, Jan von Harten, Nils Chudalla, Christin Bobe, Kaifeng Gao, Jian Yang and David Nathan (Aachen University) - 09:55-10:15: Uncertainty quantification and the importance of modelling objectively measurable geological properties rather than subjectively interpreted geological classes
Charlie Kirkwood (University of Exeter) - 10:15-10:35: Break
- 10:35-10:55: Uncertainties in joint analysis of geological and multi-source geophysical data: lessons from a blind interpretation exercise
Jérémy Rohmer, Cecile Allanic, Adnand Bitri, Frederic Dubois, Sandrine Grataloup, Thomas Jacob, Alexandre Stopin, Renaud Coueffe, Agathe Faure, Aurelie Peyrefitte, Angelie Portal, Anne Raingeard, Pierre Wawrzyniak, Romain Chassagne, Nicolas Coppo, Mathieu Darnet and Philippe Calcagno (BRGM) - 10:55-11:15: TNO and the case of missing data uncertainties
Willem Dabekaussen (TNO) - 11:15-12:00: Q&A
Watch the recording of Session 1 here.
Session 2: Methods & Tools
Monday, 2 March 2026 | 14:00 - 17:00 CET
- 14:00-14:05: Introduction
Chiara D'Ambrogi (ISPRA) - 14:05-14:25: Scenario generation from sparse geological data: example for fault network interpretation
Guillaume Caumon, Amandine Fratani and Radu Stoica (University of Lorraine) - 14:25-14:45: A spatial-autocorrelation workflow for data-driven confidence mapping of geological surfaces
Patrizio Petricca (ISPRA) - 14:45-15:00: Interactive Mentimeter
- 15:00-15:20: Advancing probabilistic uncertainty-incorporated 3D voxel modelling – the application of uncertainty
Rasmus Bødker Madsen (GEUS) - 15:20-15:40: Break
- 15:40-16:00: How uncertainties are taken into account in the SPDE process
Charlie Garayt (Ecole des Mines / BRGM) - 16:00-16:20: Modelling structural uncertainties in SKUA-GOCAD using macros
Matthis Frey (BGR) - 16:20-17:00: Q&A
Watch the recording of Session 2 here.
Session 3: Geological Survey Organisations & Case Studies
Tuesday, 3 March 2026 | 09:00 - 12:00 CET
- 09:00-09:05: Introduction
Ewa Szynkaruk (PGI-NRI) - 09:05-09:25: Model uncertainties in TNO’s subsurface modelling workflow
Jan Stafleu (TNO) - 09:25-09:45: Uncertainties in 3D geological modelling – the GEUS perspective
Ingelise Møller, Anne-Sophie Høyer, Rasmus Bødker Madsen and Peter Sandersen (GEUS) - 09:45-10:00: Interactive Mentimeter
- 10:00-10:20: Exploring, quantifying and communicating uncertainties in geological models
Sirelda Bele (Albanian Geological Survey) - 10:20-10:40: Break
- 10:40-11:00: Causes of uncertainties in geomodelling inputs: data review of Paleozoic geology in the South Limburg-Euregion Meuse-Rhine
Jasper Maars (TU Delft/TNO-GDN), Jasper Hupkes (TU Delft), Alexander J.P. Houben (TNO-GDN), Geert-Jan Vis (TNO-GDN), Allard W. Martinius (TU Delft/Equinor), Cornelis, R. Geel (TNO-GDN), Marleen de Ceukelaire (GSB) and Hemmo A. Abels (UU) - 11:00-11:20: Identifying uncertainties in 3D geological modelling in Alpine regions: challenges and open questions
Ferdinando Musso Piantelli (swisstopo), Sofia Brisson (University of Lausanne) and Eva Kurmann (swisstopo) - 11:20-12:00: Q&A
Watch the recording of Session 3 here.
Session 4: Communication & Applications
Tuesday, 3 March 2026 | 14:00 - 17:00 CET
- 14:00-14:05: Introduction
Philippe Calcagno (BRGM) - 14:05-14:25: The good, the bad and the ugly (maps&blanks&fakenews)
Santiago Martín Alfageme (IGME-CSIC), Paula Fernández-Canteli (IGME-CSIC) and Renata Barros (EGS) - 14:25-14:45: Handling of uncertainties in geological and geotechnical layer modelling in infrastructure projects
Mats Svensson and Olof Friberg (Tyréns Sverige AB) - 14:45-15:00: Interactive Mentimeter
- 15:00-15:20: Communicating model uncertainty to stakeholders - practical examples and lessons learnt
Tim Kearsey (BGS) - 15:20-15:40: Break
- 15:40-16:00: Uncertainty calculation of explicit 3D geological models in geologically complex regions and its incorporation into BIM exports of the models for further exploration and design works
Jan Franěk (CGS), František Staněk (CGS), Zdeněk Rudovský (CTU), Jan Jelínek (CGS) - 16:00-16:20: How to make models look less certain - overcoming image anchoring using visual cues to bring uncertainty into focus
Steve Tyson (Industrial Mathematics and Physics Co Ltd) - 16:20-17:00: Q&A
